Five ways to misread a defence spending figure
Measure, scope, timing of recording, denominator and budgetary stage: why figures differ.
How defence spending is actually counted
The figures reported for Italian defence spending in a single year vary widely from one document to another. I examine budgets, statistical classifications and EU fiscal rules to explain how each figure is derived and what it can meaningfully be compared with.
Italy, 2025 · same year, five measures · € billion
Ministry of Defence budget: initial appropriation2025 Budget Law
31.3
Ministry of Defence: payments made2025 State accounts (Rendiconto)
32.2
Integrated defence budgetDPP 2025–2027 (multi-year defence planning document)
35.5
Figure submitted to NATOAugust 2025 edition
45.3
Revised figure reported to NATOJuly 2026 edition
47.2
None of these figures is incorrect: each measures something different, at a different point in time. Under the national accounts framework (Eurostat COFOG), Italian defence expenditure amounted to 1.3% of GDP in 2024; NATO data put the figure for 2025 at 2.09%.
Reading the data
Resources for anyone who needs to use or cite a defence expenditure figure and understand what it measures. Primary sources, explicit assumptions, no political commentary.
NATO, the EU, Eurostat and Italy: the same terms, four meanings
Net expenditure path, COFOG Division 02, payments and deliveries, the national escape clause and SAFE.
The figure is correct. Is the comparison valid?
Tracing a published figure back to its source: the scope within which it holds, and the other figures with which it can legitimately be compared.
Publications
Publications for Centro Studi Geopolitica.info (in Italian).
2026-10-20
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24009278
For journalists
If you are preparing to publish a defence expenditure figure, I can help establish what it measures before publication.
- Comparability of NATO, Eurostat and Italian state budget figures
- Analysis of the DPP, the Budget Law and the Ministry of Defence accounts
- The national escape clause, the net expenditure path and EU fiscal rules
- SAFE loans and their impact on the deficit and public debt
- Technical checks on background, not for attribution, in English and Italian
Contact
analisi.geopolitica@vittoriomartinucci.it
I usually reply within the same working day (Central European Time).
About
Vittorio Martinucci is a tax adviser under Italian Law 4/2013 and Junior Fellow at Centro Studi Geopolitica.info. His work focuses on the relationship between public accounting and defence policy, particularly on the recording of military expenditure and the fiscal room for manoeuvre created by EU rules. In addition to his expertise in taxation and public accounting, his work draws on knowledge of military, strategic and tactical affairs.